BENCHMARK COTTON COMMENTS SEPTEMBER 29, 1999 George Weimer Floor & Market Comments: PRICES STARTED OUT LOWER DUE TO A NEGATIVE CONSUMPTION NUMBER AND QUICKLY BUMPED INTO COMMISSION HOUSE AND TRADE SCALE DOWN BUYING. THE OPTION PIT WAS RELATIVELY ACTIVE AS THERE WAS GOOD BUYING OF THE DECEMBER 53.00 PUTS. THINK IT WAS LAST WEEK WHERE SIMILAR NUMBERS TRADED ON THE SELL SIDE OF THE DECEMBER 51.00 CENT PUTS. IF THIS WAS THE SAME TRADE HOUSE ON BOTH TRANSACTIONS, THEN THEY DID A GOOD JOB OF LEGGING INTO THAT OPTION SPREAD AT CLOSE TO EVEN MONEY. ABOVE 54.00 CENTS COMMERCIALS WERE FEATURED SELLERS WITH COMMISSION HOUSES ABSORBING THE BUY SIDE. A TAD MORE AGGRESSIVENESS FROM THE BUYERS TODAY, BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH VOLUME TO REALLY SLICE THROUGH THE SCALE-UP ORDERS. ACROSS THE BOARD, PRICES CLOSED HIGHER ON THE DAY... PRE-GUESSES FOR THE CONSUMPTION FIGURE WERE 10.0 MIL. BALES, SO THIS MORNING WHEN THE ACTUAL NUMBER WAS PEGGED AT 9.915 MIL. BALES ON AN ANNUAL ADJUSTED RATE, IT WAS NOT A SURPRISE FOR THE MARKET AS TRADERS TOOK IT PRETTY MUCH IN STRIDE. THE BLAME WAS PUT ON CHEAPER-PRICED IMPORTED COTTON, ASIAN ORIENTED TEXTILE GOODS, LACK OF A COMPETITIVE STEP-2 PROGRAM, AND SLOW DEMAND IN THE DENIM SECTOR. AFTER THE FIRST CORRECTION THE MARKET SHRUGGED OFF THE INFORMATION AS IT HAS BEEN DOING ALL WEEK WITH NEGATIVE NEWS, BOTH FUNDAMENTALLY AND TECHNICALLY, AND MOVED BACK HIGHER ON THE DAY. Technical & Market Comments: TODAY'S RANGE WAS NARROWER THAN TUESDAY AND TECHNICALLY SHOULD BE CONSIDERED A NARROW RANGE, INSIDE DAY. THIS IS BASICALLY A DAY OF INDECISION, WHEN TRADERS DO NOT HAVE A STRONG CONVICTION AS TO MARKET DIRECTION. NORMALLY IT IS THE DAY AFTER THE INSIDE DAY THAT IS IMPORTANT, AS THE DIRECTION OF BREAKOUT IS USUALLY THE DIRECTION OF TREND. EVEN MORE RELIABLE WILL BE THE DIRECTION OF THE BREAKOUT OF THE DAY PRIOR TO THE INSIDE-DAY, AS TO THE CONTINUATION OF THE TREND. OBVIOUSLY NO STRATEGY IS FOOLPROOF, BUT MANY TRADERS WILL ENTER THE MARKET 'MOC' SHOULD THURSDAY'S CLOSE BE ABOVE TODAY'S HIGH AND TUESDAY'S HIGH. TECHNICIANS WILL TRADE FROM THE LONG SIDE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE NEAR-TERM TREND. A CLOSE BELOW TODAY'S LOW AND TUESDAY'S LOW WILL SIGNAL A SHORT-TERM OVERBOUGHT SITUATION WITH A DOWNSIDE CORRECTION IN THE WORKS. WILL COVER STOPS IN THURSDAY'S LETTER AFTER THE MARKET MAKES ITS COMMITMENT TOMORROW. The information and statistical data contained herein have been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable but in no way to guarantee by us as to accuracy or completeness. We do not undertake to advise you as to any change in figures or our news. This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell. STATISTICAL INFORMATION AS OF 09-17-99 DOMESTIC PRICES VOL. & OPEN INT. UNFIX. ON CALL SLS & PUR CNTR HIGH LOW CLSE CHG : VOL. O.I. CHG :SALES CHG PUR CHG OCT 5185 5150 5175 2 : 114 224 -181 : 206 -109 801 -223 DEC 5424 5350 5399 2 : 3364 36170 -419 : 8552 1947 13215 2086 MCH0 5560 5490 5550 14 : 693 12146 14 : 16133 -48 6045 -339 MAY0 5625 5565 5625 30 : 102 5608 -16 : 10137 -22 260 -18 JLY0 5700 5645 5690 22 : 51 4110 1 : 18158 110 94 -85 OCT0 5810 5810 5810 15 : 0 218 0 : 1469 13 1000 0 SPEC/HEDGE REPORT TOTALS: 4349 60975 -599 : 59510 2434 22460 1421 SPEC HEDGE CERTIFICATED STCKS SPREADS LNG 24229 37345 TOTAL: 190,547 OCT 224 UNDER DEC CHG 962 -2011 DECERT: 0 DEC 151 UNDER MCH PCT. 39.4 60.6 AW.REV: 1,350 DEC 226 UNDER MAY0 SHRT 28756 32818 ISSUED: 0 MCH0 75 UNDER MAY0 CHG 558 -1607 CXL: 0 MAY0 65 UNDER JLY0 PCT. 46.7 53.3 OPTIONS: VOL: O.I. : %CHG -7.3 7.3 PUTS: 1300 35051 : WEEKLY EXPORTS EST. VOL 5,500 CALLS: 1700 70780 : SALES SHIPMENTS AWP DLY: 34.44 AWP WKLY:34.51 3000 105831 : WKLY 74,800 38,200 DLY LDP: 1748 INDICES: A-48.35 B- N/A YTD 2,918,400 317,200 WKLY LDP:1741 DLY THEOR. SUBSIDY: 698 RST KEY SUPPORT TRND:s-t:sdwys;L-t:sdwys DLY RNG: 74 PTS DEC: 5482/5432 5391 5362/5316 DEC: 14-DY.RSI=54 9-DY.M.A.=5343, 21-DY.M.A.=5289, 40-DY.M.A.= 5293 The information and statistical data contained herein have been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable but in no way to guarantee by us as to accuracy or completeness. We do not undertake to advise you as to any change in figures or our news. This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell.